Props to Transterrestial Musings for spotting this post by Michael Totten:
ISIS has announced that Lebanon will be the next state to fall under the sway of its “caliphate.” According to Beirut’s Daily Star newspaper, the only reason ISIS hasn’t attacked yet in force is because they haven’t decided on the mission’s commander.
The Lebanese army is one of the least effective in the Middle East—and that’s saying something in a region where the far more capable Syrian and Iraqi armies are utterly failing to safeguard what should be their own sovereign territory.
The question is not whether Lebanon has the means to fight off Islamic State (as Totten claims Lebanese families are heavily armed), but rather does Lebanon have the will to combat Islamic State to the death.
Unless Israel gets involved (highly unlikely due to Hezbollah’s participation within the Lebanese government) then I expect Lebanon to either fall to Islamic State or join Syria in the chaotic country club.